On 24 February 2022, when Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, he has de facto declared war to the democratic and liberal order in Europe. As such, he has directly challenged the European Union.
The EU’s reaction has been remarkable by its unusual swift and united character. Its message to Russia’s leadership and, indirectly, other autocratic regimes is clear: Europe is prepared to vigorously defend and uphold its collective values and in particular democracy and the rule of law. And it is determined to do so in the various areas where it is challenged, even if this implies a heavy cost as well a paradigm shift in traditional policy and regulation.
The main areas at stake include the energy, digital and defence value chains and, more broadly, the EU’s strategic autonomy.
Regarding energy, the EU Green Deal has found, with Putin’s aggression, an additional purpose: not only to fight climate change but also to increase the EU energy security by ending its dependence on gas. The measures proposed by the European Commission in its REPowerEU communication are significant and timely. Their swift implementation is, however, far from being guaranteed in an immediate time horizon.
Several hurdles will need to be overcome. The diversification of energy supply will require the political will of foreign partners. These do not necessarily share the same objectives as the EU. Getting enough gas will therefore not be easy and this is likely to drive prices even higher. Moreover, securing the necessary investment in renewables will imply that the related deployment of relevant infrastructure successfully meets several conditions. These include a revised legal and regulatory framework, permitting processes overcoming the NIMBY syndrome, the encouragement of collaboration between Member States, and massive support to R&D. Furthermore, improving gas and electricity interconnectivity is highly sensitive, as a recent CERRE study on sector coupling has demonstrated. Finally, the much-needed review of the wholesale and retail energy market design will necessarily be a comprehensive, technical exercise. This must necessarily go much beyond the current calls to delink the price of (an increasingly decarbonised) electricity from the price of gas.
In the digital area, the EU ban on RT and Sputnik is politically fully justified because, as expressed by Hannah Arendt in 1951 in The Origins of Totalitarianism, general confusion between propaganda and facts eventually leads to dictatorship. In our democracies, it is not acceptable that foreign (and sometimes EU) state-backed media outlets disseminate “alternative facts” using online platforms to increase their outreach and make use of existing loopholes to escape regulation. This ban raises, however, questions. How should the necessity and proportionality criteria be applied in such cases of restriction to the media freedom of (dis)information and opinions? Should such restriction be taken only in “extraordinary” circumstances, as justified, quasi-simultaneously by Nick Clegg from Meta, and Christel Schaldemose, the European Parliament rapporteur on the currently discussed Digital Services Act (DSA)? Should the latter be reinforced to address these challenges?
On the defence front, the EU has advanced more in the very first days of the Russian invasion than in the last forty years. The significant recourse, for the first time, to the only one-year old European Peace Facility is a bold move. It seems that, without prejudice to the need for a rejuvenated NATO, more and more member states are now prepared to agree that a strategic doctrine review is needed for the continent to oversee its own destiny. And this is so without prejudice to knowing whether the policies of the next US president will look like those of the current one or of his temperamental and erratic predecessor. It is also noticeable that, as war aligns their respective foreign policy interests, the UK’s rift with the EU seems to start healing.
War today is not any more carried by classical military means only. It also takes the form of cyber and hybrid attacks targeting military installations, public and private organisations and critical infrastructure such as power grids, gas pipelines, digital and financial networks. Russia has developed a sophisticated cyberwarfare strategy. It is therefore not surprising that, as its tanks rolled into Ukraine, so did malware. The EU ministers for telecommunications have just topped up existing cyber activities and institutions such as the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) with a comprehensive plan to boost the resilience of European networks. It is not clear yet, however, whether that plan will also provide for the urgently needed diversification of backbone infrastructure, on land, sea and space for communications satellites. In addition, the magnitude of the threat should lead to the setting up of Public Private Partnerships involving government agencies, tech vendors, telecom operators and online platforms.
Finally, coming after the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine has lifted higher what was until recently a rather disputed concept, promoted mainly by France, i.e., strategic autonomy. In the last days, former opponents, such as the Netherlands and the Nordics, seem to have come closer to the idea. The premise is that globalisation, as it has been deployed in the last decades, is not automatically a source of security and prosperity. The energy price hikes highlight the need for energy independence. A similar logic applies to food. Accounting for almost 30% of global wheat exports, Russia and Ukraine are Europe’s breadbasket. Their exports are, however, stalled by the war and the ensuing sanctions. The situation is similar regarding half a dozen Russia- and Ukraine-originated raw materials, some of which are essential for chips, such as neon, for catalytic converters such as palladium, or for fertilisers such as potash. In addition, the lack of sufficient diversity in many minerals’ supply chains is an impediment to the achievement of the EU energy security and clean energy objectives, since these minerals are critical for key green technologies, such as batteries. Well understood strategic autonomy should, however, neither be confused with unrealistic autarky, nor prevent robust competition on the markets. It is about building sustainable supply chains with likeminded partners with a view to avoid disruptions. It is also about working with those partners towards approximating our respective laws and regulations and, when this is not feasible, identifying ways to manage our divergences to overcome the obstacles to trade and cooperation.
To conclude, the war in Ukraine forces the European Union to reinforce it unity, its joint political will and its capability to act and deliver common economic, food, industrial, energy, technology, security and defence policies. The time is over for “the European Union, an economic giant but a geo-political dwarf”. The EU strategic autonomy must go along with a rejuvenated industrial policy. This should provide for diversification of supplies, balanced cooperation in a world of interdependence, and coordination between trade and competition policies to ensure a level playing field.
The road ahead for the European Union may be bumpy. The distributional impact of the energy transition, the increase in prices, the fight against disinformation at home and abroad and probably other developments still unclear today could generate tensions and even shocks. These could take the form of social unrest and political disruptions. To properly address them, comprehensive strategies, taking into account our citizens’ needs for protection, will be required at the Union and Member State levels. But, for the time being, while Russia is trying to brutally impose its power not only in Ukraine but also in Central Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa, not to mention the threats to its Western neighbours, it is timely for the EU to assert its strong, value-based norms, effective institutions and unity of action. And, as such, to demonstrate that law and the democratic order will eventually always prevail over power and autocratic challenges.
